| An introduction to the dynamics of climate change lays the foundation
for an examination of the complex system of interactive feedback mechanisms
and the phenomenon of amplification of the system response to the
precipitating anthropogenic disturbance. Distinction is made between systems
of complexity which can dominate behaviour in sub-system dynamics, and the
higher level complex system-dynamics which determine the response of the
earth system as a whole. The interplay between the two is explored. |
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| The approach is then developed to provide a framework within which to
examine the boundary conditions of runaway climate change, an evaluation of
risk, and assessment of the implications of the new analysis for strategic
intervention |
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| The second part of the seminar focuses on the dynamics of social systems
in response to the climate crisis. The escalating rigidity and complexity of
command and control structures reduce the resilience of the social system.
The institutions of international negotiation become dysfunctional as a
means of mobilising effective global problem-solving. The dominance of
powerful vested interests in the politico- economic arena constitute a
virtual veto on essential action, reinforced by the psychodynamics of
resistance to change in conditions of rising social anxiety. |
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| The insights of complexity science may offer an alternative approach,
mobilising the deconstruction of the command and control dynamics and
catalysing the emergence of a zone of contained turbulence (the "chaotic"
state) in social behaviour. Connectivity, self-organisation, multiple
parallel processing and the emergent properties of a metamorphic
transformation of global dynamics, could generate response that is able to
get ahead of the curve of the developing crisis. The precipitation of the
required phase-change in social dynamics from the rigid, slow response
characteristics of the solid state, to the resilient flexibility of a liquid
phase may constitute the best hope of achieving a sustainable form of human
civilisation within the definitive constraints of the planetary environment. |
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| Two fully illustrated pdfs, covering both parts of the seminar, are
accessible via the links below. |
